You open your renewal and it’s up double digits. But the news says your carrier “held rates steady,” or the filing you find says +2%. You’re not being gaslit, and the filing isn’t wrong — the rate a carrier files is a statewide average, not your rate.
The average hides an enormous spread
A single rate filing covers everyone a carrier insures in your state. Inside that one filing, different rating territories — roughly, different ZIP codes — can move by wildly different amounts. The statewide number is just the blended result. Real examples from filings we’ve pulled across 4 states:
- Allstate in Louisiana filed a +3.8% statewide average — but the change ranged up to +125.3% depending on the ZIP (see the filing).
- Progressive in Pennsylvania filed a +0.9% statewide average — but the change ranged up to +121.4% depending on the ZIP (see the filing).
- The Hartford in Ohio filed a +5.4% statewide average — but the change ranged up to +55.9% depending on the ZIP (see the filing).
- Cincinnati Insurance in Ohio filed a ±0% statewide average — but the change ranged up to +34.7% depending on the ZIP (see the filing).
Same filing, same “average.” One neighborhood barely moves; another jumps 30, 60, even 100+ percent.
“No change overall” can still mean a big change for you
A filing can even average ±0% and still move your bill a lot. American Family’s Ohio filing was essentially flat overall, yet it raised some ZIPs by +6.3% while cutting others by −49.1%. “No overall change” is often a redistribution — the total premium the carrier collects stays flat, but who pays it shifts.
Sometimes the increase you got is smaller than the one they wanted
Every rate filing includes the carrier’s own actuarial “indicated” number — what their analysis says they need. They often file for less than that. NJM Insurance in Ohio filed +10% but indicated it wanted +24.1%. When the filed number trails the indicated one, it usually means more increases are queued for future renewals — a reason to lock in a better price now rather than wait.
What to actually do about it
Filed changes reach you at renewal — and a cut often reaches new customers before existing ones. The only way to see where you land, versus the statewide average, is to compare carriers for your exact ZIP.
See who’s raising and cutting home rates in your state →
Common questions
Why did my home insurance go up if my insurer says rates are flat?
The rate change a carrier files is a statewide average. Within that one filing, individual rating territories (roughly your ZIP) can move far more — or less — than the average. A filing that averages 0% can still raise your ZIP by 20-40% while lowering others, because the carrier is redistributing where the risk sits.
What is a statewide average rate change?
It's the single percentage a carrier reports to the state for a filing — the change to its total premium across everyone it insures in that state. It is not your personal rate change. Your change depends on your territory, home age, roof, and coverage.
Can my rate go up when my insurer filed a 0% change?
Yes. A 0% overall filing means the carrier's total premium doesn't change — but it can still shift premium between ZIPs, raising higher-risk areas and cutting lower-risk ones. We've logged 0%-overall home filings that moved individual territories by more than 40 percentage points.
How do I find out my actual rate change?
Re-shop your exact ZIP. Filed changes reach you at renewal, and a cut often reaches new customers first. Comparing carriers for your address is the only way to see where you actually land versus the average.
Figures are filed statewide-average changes and their by-territory ranges, taken from carriers’ own rate filings with state insurance regulators. Individual rates vary by home, roof age, and risk. Not a quote.