| Carrier | Rate Change | Policyholders | Eff. Date | Filing # |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Farm | −6.5% | 1.4M | 12/11/25 | SFMA-134688491 → |
| USAA | −1.3% | 182K | 3/1/26 | USAA-134728239 → |
| Nationwide | −5.0% | 17K | 6/4/26 | NWPP-G134897540 → |
| GEICO | +3.8% | 181K | 4/15/26 | GECC-134876961 → |
| Erie | +4.2% | 218K | 1/1/26 | ERAP-134691371 → |
| Progressive | +2.0% | 199K | 5/16/25 | PRGS-134458370 → |
| Allstate | +3.0% | 69K | 7/27/26 | ALSE-134970309 → |
| Liberty Mutual | +4.0% | 46K | 6/23/26 | LBPM-134893945 → |
These are approved Virginia Bureau of Insurance filings, pulled from the public SERFF system — not estimates. Every figure above links to its filing by tracking number. The headline: Virginia’s largest auto insurer cut rates hard, several big carriers raised modestly, and the changes reach drivers at renewal — not all at once.
The State Farm story
State Farm is the biggest auto insurer in Virginia, and it cut −6.5% on roughly 1.43 million policyholders (SFMA-134688491), on top of an earlier −4.0% cut. That is the single largest rate action in the state this year, and it moves the market: when the biggest book gets cheaper, every other carrier’s price looks higher by comparison. USAA trimmed −1.3% across ~182,000 members, and part of Nationwide’s book came down −5.0%.
Who raised — and who held back
Several large carriers went up, but modestly, and the filings show most took less than their own actuaries said they needed — which usually means more is coming. Erie raised +4.2% against a +6.9% indication; Allstate took +3.0% against a +10% indication; GEICO took exactly its indicated +3.8%. Progressive came in at +2.0%. None of these is a spike — Virginia in 2026 is a long way from the double-digit increases of 2025 — but the unfilled indications at Erie and Allstate point to continued upward pressure at renewal.
The backdrop: auto rates nationally are rising far more slowly in 2026 than the ~18% spike of 2025, and many carriers are now filing outright decreases. Virginia is a clear example: the biggest book cut, and the raises are small. If your carrier is one of the ones that went up, the odds a competitor is cheaper are unusually good right now.
The widest spread: Liberty Mutual, +82% to −18%
A statewide average hides how differently drivers are treated. Liberty Mutual’s +4.0% filing ranged from about +82% at the top to about −18% at the bottom — one of the widest spreads in the state. GEICO’s +3.8% ran +10% to −28%; Erie’s +4.2% ran +34% to −30%. In other words, two drivers with the same carrier can see wildly different renewals depending on ZIP, vehicle, age and history. The average describes the book, not you.
Why your renewal might not reflect this yet
Approved changes are statewide averages, and they apply at renewal, not mid-term — and a cut usually reaches new customers first. So two identical drivers can pay different rates for months purely on renewal timing. Your renewal notice shows your carrier’s price for your coverage; it does not tell you what a competitor would charge for the same coverage today.
The one stat that matters: Virginia’s biggest insurer just cut 1.4 million drivers while others raised — the gap between what you pay and the best price is unusually wide. Compare every carrier for your exact ZIP →
What to do
If State Farm, USAA or Nationwide cut and you’re with a carrier that raised, you are the exact driver who benefits from shopping. And even if your carrier cut, the spread means your individual change may not match the headline. Comparing every carrier for your ZIP and profile is free and takes a couple of minutes — the only way to know whether you’re on the best current Virginia price.