| Carrier | Rate Change | Policyholders | Eff. Date | Filing # |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEICO | +3.8% | 181K | 4/15/26 | GECC-134876961 → |
| Erie | +4.2% | 218K | 1/1/26 | ERAP-134691371 → |
| Progressive | +2.0% | 199K | 5/16/25 | PRGS-134458370 → |
| State Farm | −6.5% | 1.4M | 12/11/25 | SFMA-134688491 → |
| USAA | −1.3% | 182K | 3/1/26 | USAA-134728239 → |
| Nationwide | −5.0% | 17K | 6/4/26 | NWPP-G134897540 → |
If your GEICO renewal in Virginia came in higher, here is the source: GEICO filed for a rate increase (SERFF GECC-134876961) and the Virginia Bureau of Insurance approved +3.8%. The figures above are approved filings pulled from the public SERFF system — not estimates — and every one links to its filing.
The +3.8% is an average. Your increase almost certainly isn’t 3.8%.
A statewide rate change is a single blended number, but a carrier doesn’t move every driver by the same amount. GEICO’s own filing reports the spread: the largest increase in the book was about +10%, and the largest decrease was about −28%. In other words, inside a “+3.8% average,” some Virginia drivers were raised double digits and others were cut by more than a quarter.
Where you land depends on the things GEICO reprices individually — your ZIP, your vehicle, your age, your claims and violation history, and your coverage. That is exactly why one number in a headline can’t tell you whether your increase is reasonable, and why the only useful comparison is one run for your specific profile.
The one stat that matters: GEICO’s Virginia filing ranged from +10% to −28% around a +3.8% average. A carrier that raised you can be cutting the driver one ZIP over. Compare every carrier for your exact ZIP →
Why GEICO raised at all
Filings separate two numbers: the indicated change (what the carrier’s actuaries said the loss data justified) and the approved change (what the state actually allowed). GEICO’s indicated need was +3.8% and it took +3.8% — it did not hold anything back. That is a modest, fully-justified adjustment, not a carrier trying to get ahead of its losses. For contrast, Erie indicated +6.9% but was approved for +4.2%, and Progressive came in at +2.0% — so Virginia’s big carriers moved up only slightly in 2026, a long way from the double-digit spikes of 2025.
Meanwhile, Virginia’s biggest insurer cut rates
Here is the part your renewal notice will never mention. While GEICO nudged up, State Farm — the largest auto insurer in Virginia — cut −6.5% on roughly 1.43 million policyholders, on top of an earlier −4.0% cut. USAA trimmed −1.3% across ~182,000 members, and part of Nationwide’s book came down −5.0%. The Virginia market did not move up in lockstep — some of the biggest books moved down. A GEICO increase, against that backdrop, is a strong reason to see what a competitor would charge you today.
What to do with your renewal
Approved changes apply at renewal, not mid-term, and usually reach new customers before existing ones — so two identical drivers can pay different rates for months purely on renewal timing. Your renewal shows GEICO’s price for your coverage; it does not tell you what State Farm, USAA or anyone else would charge for the same coverage. Running your ZIP and profile against every carrier takes a couple of minutes and costs nothing — and given who’s cutting in Virginia right now, it’s worth doing before you renew.